Summary
Roel Meijer
Algemene verkiezingen in Irak: einde van een conflict of begin van een nieuwe fase?
Roel Meijer argues that the general elections held in Iraq last December have led to a further destabilisation of Iraq. Not only have the secular parties, which could have played an intermediary role between Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis, lost, in addition the religious parties, and especially the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance, have won. As a result it seems that Iraq has become increasingly split between its three main communities. In view of their enormous differences on the main issues - federalism (centralized or decentralized), the identity of Iraq (Arab or multi-ethnic), de-Baathification, and the role of Islam (an Islamic state or a secular state) - a further deterioration of mutual relations seems inevitable. The author, however, argues that if a civil war is in the cards, it might not take the form of a clear-cut division along Shiite-Sunni-Kurdish lines, but on account of the internal divisions this conflict could adopt a much more diverse character.